Dr Shirley Yu: Forget the trade war. Beijing’s worst nightmare is a property market collapse, Japan-style

Dr Shirley Yu

In her most recent SCMP article, Dr Shirley Yu shared why she believes that China’s biggest economic risk in 2020 isn’t the trade war but a possible property market collapse.

Here are a few highlights:

China’s biggest economic risk in 2020 comes from its efforts to deflate the real estate bubble, which is closer to collapse than any point since 2003. Failure to find a soft landing may spell the end of China’s economic dream


China’s consumer price index surged 3.8 per cent in October. Any further monetary easing will run the risk of stoking inflation. Stagflation is the new devil in China’s economic house. Should the property bubble burst now, China’s monetary policy decisions – to ease or not, and by how much and when – will only be more complicated and harder to make than for the Bank of Japan in the late 1980s.

Whether one subscribes to Bernankian economics or the Plaza Accord conspiracy, risks abound.

Trade conflicts can always be addressed by recalibrating global trading routes over time. But China’s economic dream will be over if its property bubble bursts, Japan-style. All bubbles come to an end; the question for China is when and how. In 2020, the fate of the US-China economic war will be contingent less upon the trade deal and more on whether China can rein in its grey rhino at home.

Read more about it here

Dr Shirley YuDr Shirley Yu (于泽), is a former CCTV 9 anchor, an experienced moderator and author. She holds a PhD in Economics from Peking Univeristy and started her career with investment bank Merrill Lynch in the US.

Shirley Yu wanted to be the “voice” of China’s new economic language and this prompted her to join China Central Television (CCTV) News in 2009, where she hosted the morning news bulletins, daily Wall Street market news wrap-ups.

In July 2015, amidst the China-induced global financial turmoil, Shirley moderated a panel in New York City with Dr. Alan Greenspan, Dr. Larry Summers and Steve Forbes on Chinese economy and the world, which has achieved impressive success. Since then, she has been a frequent moderator for numerous global forums, including the Boao Forum for Asia, United Nations World Investment Forum, Committee of 100 Conference, Asia Pacific Financial Conference, Australian institute of Company Directors Conference, just to name a few.

At present, Shirley continues as a business entrepreneur and independent financial host to connect China and Chinese private businesses with the world. Fluent in both English and Mandarin Chinese, Shirley is also a noted author, with three books to her name as of this time.

Contact us if you would like to have Dr Shirley Yu at your next corporate event.