Manu Bhaskaran‘s insights on China’s economy and its impact on the developing countries, extract from his blog:
China may well grow progressively more slowly over time as its population ages and the potential for catch-up growth recedes. But its economic impact on the rest of the world, especially other developing economies, will widen. Whereas in the past it was all about imports of intermediate goods for export processing platforms and primary commodities and capital goods for industrial expansion and the property sector, China’s import structure will shift in favor of more consumer-related goods. China’s impact will go beyond trade in goods. In future China’s foreign direct investment, portfolio investment demand for services will become much more important. China is also set to become more competitive in higher value activities which middle income countries currently excel in: there will be more competition for these countries.
In short, China’s reforms are real and they will have a sizeable impact on other developing economies. China will show that the winners in the global economy are those countries that have the political gumption to press ahead with painful changes. Those that don’t will become the losers in the economic game.
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Manu Bhaskaran is Director of Centennial Group International and the Founding Director and Chief Executive Officer of Centennial Asia Advisors. Mr Bhaskaran is an expert on economic and political risk assessment and forecasting. Before joining the Centennial Group, he was Chief Economist for Asia of a leading international investment bank and managed its Singapore-based economic advisory group.
Mr. Bhaskaran is a well-regarded commentator on Asian financial and economic affairs, and has regular columns in business weeklies such as the Nikkei in Japan and the Edge in Singapore/Malaysia. He serves as Senior Adjunct Fellow, Institute of Policy Studies, Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs and Vice-President of the Economics Society of Singapore. Mr. Bhaskaran has a Master’s degree in Public Administration from the John F Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and a Bachelor’s degree in economics from Cambridge University. He has also qualified as a Chartered Financial Analyst. He is based in Singapore.